Today: 10.Dec.2018

Don Bogard, radio-geochemistry, nuclear geochemistry, planetary science: The recent release of part 2 of the US National Climate Assessment report, November 2018, prompted all sorts of press reports and similar activity which predicted future calamity and destruction if the world did not take drastic action now. Two points the report did not make -- 1) the UN-IPCC gives a broad range of possible future temperatures of varying probability and the possibility used for this report is at the improbable high end; and 2) it exaggerated any effects from such an unlikely warming. If these future warming predictions have any reality, an increase in global temperature of 2 degrees Celsius, relative to 19th century temperature, cannot be avoided by any action.

Don Bogard, radio-geochemistry, nuclear geochemistry, planetary science: Most people express concern about melting polar ice sheets. But, it is the global warming, ongoing for over 200 years, that is the main culprit. And much of such warming earlier on was not caused by CO2, and that warming may still be present. If 3.1 mm/yr rise were to continue to year 2050, it would add another ~4 inches to sea rise. Most sea shores have much more to worry about from tides and waves.

Published in Oceans, Rivers, Lakes

Don Bogard, radio-geochemistry, nuclear geochemistry, planetary science: This is an excellent personal summary describing what is known and what is uncertain about the topic of catastrophic man-made global warming and large rise in sea levels causing flooding of cities around the world. This is written from a personal and scientific point of view without political or faith oriented influences. It is very important to understand the topic of man-made global warming, man-made climate change, man-made climate disruption and man-made sea level rise correctly as best as possible. It has tremendous consequences if the conclusions and courses of action are right or wrong.

Don Bogard, radio-geochemistry, nuclear geochemistry, planetary science: Carbon (C) exchange rates among C reservoirs tend to be at equilibrium unless and until a significant environmental change disturbs that. A significant increase in atmospheric (Atmos) CO2 concentration over the past century has been such a disturbance, and as a consequence a large fraction of that growth in Atmos CO2 has manifested as new plant growth and to increased ocean C levels. Increased temperature over the past century (which mostly has only modestly affected the ocean) and any tendency for warmer surface ocean to degas more CO2, has been over-powered by higher Atmos CO2 shifting the chemical equilibrium toward more dissolution of Atmos CO2 into the oceans. Higher decay rates of soil biotic material caused by the increased temperatures may be a source of part of the Atmos CO2 increase over the past century. However, it is most unlikely that organic decay has been other than a minor source, especially in the past few decades when Atmos CO2 was growing most rapidly.