Edward Calabrese, Professor of Toxicology at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst: Considerable recent ﬁndings have revealed that the linear dose response for cancer risk assessment has not only outlived its utility in predicting risk but is based on a ﬂawed scientiﬁc foundation. The present article characterizes this demise of a key concept of environmental risk assessment, in the framework of a ﬁgurative obituary of a long-lived concept that has poorly served society. This obituary is intended to illustrate an integrated mix of poignant and improper historical judgments that led to both the acceptance and ultimately the demise of this once intellectually facile and nearly universally accepted concept.
John Shanahan, Dr. Ing., Civil Engineer: With financial and management situations of Toshiba, Westinghouse, Areva, and GE in the nuclear power business, the world's capability to build new nuclear power plants has obviously been set back. China, Russia and South Korea are now the leading sources of new nuclear power plants. How France and the United States might make a come back is not known at this time. This is a simple estimate of how long it might take to have nuclear become 50% of the world's electric generating capacity. The conclusion is that it will probably take several hundred years to get to 50% nuclear electric generating capacity. This has significant implications for energy planning.
Dr. A. David Rossin is a Center Affiliated Scholar, Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University. He was President of the American Nuclear Society (1992-93) and served as Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy, USDOE, in 1986-87: He initiated this letter to the National Academy of Sciences recommending that guidelines for radiation risk assessment be based on science rather than the arbitrary Linear No Threshold Model.
Debalina Ghoshal, Gatestone Institute International Policy Council: China is working the most to expand the use of nuclear power on land and sea. In April 2016, reports began coming in that China has plans to build floating nuclear power plants in the South China Sea. Final assembly of the reactor is reported to start in coastal city of Huludao, in Liaoning province, and will be built by Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co Ltd, a unit of China Shipbuilding Industry Corp (CSIC). China's 2016 nuclear plan, a component of the China's 13th five-year plan, is evidently to complete 58 nuclear reactors by 2020 and build another 100 gigawatt-sized reactors by 2030.